Expectations are crucial in situations of radical uncertainty like the current one. The dire management of vaccines by the European Commission has dashed prospects for a rapid recovery. Disappointment, occurring in a context that is already very deteriorated, can lead to drastic decisions in the sectors hardest hit by the crisis. And at the same time slow down the ongoing recovery in other sectors.
Since the beginning of the year, the main economic activity index for the services sector has remained in a contractionary position (the PMI stood at 43.1 in February, clearly below the threshold of 50). The cyclical position is significantly better in the manufacturing sector, which also anticipates a recovery in the coming months. However, the area shows the appearance of bottlenecks of technological supplies and raw materials, causing an increase in production costs. In both sectors, the outlook is for a reduction in employment.